@article{205051,
  author = {Nicolas Choquette-Levy and Michael Oppenheimer},
  title = {Retrenchment under climate-driven risks in subsistence farming communities},
  abstract = {<p>Increasing climate risks introduce new sources of uncertainty to smallholder farmers{\textquoteright} livelihood decisions. While farmers in different development contexts tend to accurately perceive long-term climatic trends, livelihood diversification as a climate resilience strategy has generally lagged behind awareness of climate risks. In this study, we investigate potential mechanisms behind this lagged response through a survey of 500 farming households in Nepal{\textquoteright}s Chitwan Valley, a region that is highly dependent on subsistence agriculture and highly exposed to several climate-driven hazards. Specifically, we employ a suite of cross-sectional and time series econometric techniques to analyze how farmers{\textquoteright} information sources, social capital, and previous exposure to climate hazards shape climate risk perceptions and livelihood decisions. We find that climate-driven risks are highly salient to household perceptions of farming risks; however, they also drive higher perceived risks of common livelihood diversification strategies, including rural{\textendash}urban migration and off-farm employment. Further, while farming households generally maintain diversified income portfolios, exposure to droughts and/or floods leads to persistent increases in the reliance on farming income, which we term a {\textquotedblleft}retrenchment{\textquotedblright} response. We find evidence for both financial and psychological mechanisms behind this response, which may exacerbate environmentally driven poverty traps. Our results indicate that efforts to build farmers{\textquoteright} resilience to climate risks should especially account for perceived risks of livelihood alternatives, financial constraints, and loss-averse behavior in response to income shocks.</p>},
  year = {2025},
  journal = {Population and Environment},
  volume = {47},
  month = {05/2025},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-025-00493-8},
  doi = {10.1007/s11111-025-00493-8},
}